October 2023 – NWA Monthly Market Update

Fall is in full swing here across Northwest Arkansas, and our Real Estate market is beginning to slow a little bit as it usually does this time of year. However, inventory is staying relatively low which is keeping prices on the higher side. Interest rates are continuing to rise and test the market, but for now the lack of homes in the market has kept prices from falling too much.

As you can see here, our Inventory is hovering around 4 months of supply, which means we are still in a Seller’s Market. As Autumn begins to set in, and hopefully with more listings lingering on the market for bit longer, buyers might have a chance to lock in a nice home before the end of the year, and we may even see more negotiating room on prices and better terms as the season rolls on.

In this chart below, you can see the number of Active/Pending Homes in September starting to go lower than our level from July and August. Also, our number of Closed transactions slipped back down from around 1,000 sales to 840. So overall, inventory and closings are both going a little lower, which is to be expected this time of year. But because they are both lowering at the same time, it means the speed of the market is actually remaining pretty much unchanged for now, with around 4 Months of Supply. And that means Sellers still have the upper hand in this market, for now.

As for how long properties are staying in the market, we’re on our way back up with September’s Average Days coming in at 81. On the last Monthly Market Update, I predicted longer days on market coming into the Fall, but we haven’t seen days that long since before the Covid era. This is good news for buyers because the longer homes sit on the market, the more willing Sellers are to negotiate better prices and terms.

Median Days on Market came in at 69 Days. And with a 30-45 Day Closing period for most transactions, this means most homes are still finding a contract within the first few weeks of being listed. Also, it’s important to point out that New Construction Homes are not included in this data set due the time it takes to complete the building process, they will always tend to pull these averages upward. And so if I included those, that would not a good indication of how long it would take for you to sell your house.

In terms of Pricing, our Average Home Sale Price back in May was an all-time record for our area at $437,000! Since that time, our prices fell back down to around that $400,000 baseline I’ve been expecting. And our September number came in at $401,941.

Median price even came up a bit this month to $350,000, from August’s $341,990.

I expect this average pricing level to continue around $400,000 as we move through the Fall. As we see a rebound in inventory, and as interest rates remain high, we will see a more balanced market this Fall and Winter. Prices should normalize and I don’t expect to see new highs for the rest of the year, although I don’t see prices going drastically lower either.

Average Prices Per Square Foot held around $200/SqFt this month.

Mortgage Rates are making new highs once again, currently at about 7.31%. This is keeping mortgage payments unaffordable for many potential buyers, creating a dampening effect on the true pent up demand for homes. That’s why we’re recommending buyers take advantage of the opportunities we will see this Fall in order to scoop up a good deal. We should see more inventory, longer days on market, and sellers willing to negotiate a bit more as the buyer pool shrinks.

What it all Means for You

Our Northwest Arkansas real estate market is losing a little bit of steam as we’re winding down into the Fall.

Right now, I’m seeing a big window of opportunity for buyers as more inventory should build into the slower months. If you’ve been thinking about making a move, now might be a good time. You can shop as we slide into a slower market, often with price reductions on larger properties. You’ll have less competition and if rates drop in the coming years, you’ll be able to refinance for increased savings at that time.

If mortgage interest rates fall in the future, I would expect another flood of buyers coming into the market and competing for the homes that are available. In that scenario, prices will jump even higher from current levels. So locking in a good price right now may be a smart bet. Then if you can refinance into a lower rate, you’ll have the best of both worlds.

Our lender partners can fill you in on all your options, including mortgage programs that may allow you to Buy Down your rate.

Also, we’ve put together a program to find “Hidden Inventory, Off Market Homes” for my clients without all the hassle and competition from other buyers.

This has been and will continue to be our #1 Strategy to get you and your family out of your current home and into your dream home.  Let’s see what we can find together!

Just click here to learn all about the “Perfect Home Finder” Program!

If you’ve been thinking you’ll wait till next year or later to make your move, I’d like to share a strategy to save you $20,000 to $30,000 and potentially hundreds of dollars off your monthly bills, depending on the equity position you have in your current home. Would that be a conversation worth having? If so, leave me a message below.

To see the strategies we’ve been implementing to sell for the most the market will bear, regardless of the time of year we’re in, Watch our “Pre-Listing Price Accelerator” Guide Here and see How To Maximize Your Home Sale. It will walk you through everything we’ve been doing at the LoneRock Team to get amazing results for our home sellers.

With that being said, I hope you have a “Spooky” good time here in October, go enjoy some Fall time Festivities, and we’ll catch you on the next Monthly Market Update!