In typical Northwest Arkansas fashion, we are getting storms across the region like we do every year at this time. But is there a storm brewing in the housing market? Well, make sure to stick with me to the end of this article because I’ll share all the details of the lighting and thunder happening in our market here in your April 2024 Monthly Market Update.
Starting with our inventory levels, we’ve now dipped firmly below 5 Months of Inventory. As predicted, we are moving back toward a Seller’s Market with a Supply of only 4.49 Months of Inventory in the market, given our current pace of home sales. Expect that number to go even lower as we move through the Spring, into our Summer season.
With 815 sales recorded in March, we are basically on pace with where we were at this time last year. Also, with 3,479 active and pending listings, we’re seeing more supply in our market now than at any time since July of 2020. We’re still well below Pre-Covid inventory levels like we saw between 2016 and 2019. But it looks like we’re moving back into a more stable market like what we had back then. There should continue to be a few more homes in the market than what we’ve been seeing the last few years, so you home Buyers should have more options.
In March, the average days-on-market came down to 67 days, while the median days-on-market dropped to 48 days. So, even with more properties on the market, the pace of sales also increased, and so our Days on Market has been trending lower. Most property listings are getting buyers locked in within the first few weeks of listing. But, again it’s definitely a slower pace than the frenzy we saw during the Summers of 2021 and even 2022.
As for pricing, March’s Average Sale Price of $399,898 stayed right in line with expectations, maintaining our trend of levels at or above $400,000. I’ve been expecting this to move higher as we get into the Summer months, but if rates stay high and if wages don’t rise, we could even see prices stall out around this level and potentially even retract from here.
We’re watching the affordability metrics between what people are earning and how much the average house payment has increased. For an equivalent house, the difference between payments you could get in 2022 and the payment you would need to pay now could be as much as $1,000 difference.
As you can see, our pricing has basically been trending sideways for the last year, with this March number essentially matching 2023’s March Average of $401,048. Has our market reached it’s limit? Is this our Peak Pricing before a market correction? Only time will tell.
I should also point out our March Median Sale Price of $344,900 has also stalled out around the $350,000 level for the last 9 months.
Based on the demand I’m still seeing in our NWA market, I’m still expecting modest price growth throughout this next year, especially because prices almost always rise more in the Summer. Also, if interest rates adjust lower, maybe later in the year we should expect to see home prices move higher. More on those rate adjustments in just a minute. But you could definitely make the case that our market is hitting some pricing resistance and may have some trouble boosting prices in the current economic environment.
Average Prices Per Square Foot around the region stayed right around $200/SqFt this month.
As for financing, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage average is now around 6.8%. This is a full 1% lower than our peak rate of 7.8% back in October 2023. I’m expecting these rates to be in the Sixes for most of the year. Perhaps we could see a dip down into the Fives later in the year, with the election and everything, but don’t expect a return to the Covid era rates. This is the rate environment we will probably be in for a while.
What it all Means for You
This is always an exciting time of the year, as a lot of people are gearing up to make a move in the Spring and Summer. Kids are getting ready for schools to let out. There’s a lot of energy and hustle and bustle in the air this time of year.
One thing I’ve noticed, is there has been a lot of pent up demand for homes. There have been a lot of people sitting on the sidelines, itching to make a move happen, and quite a few are finally deciding to jump in. With rates dropping back from their peak, new inventory coming back, and prices staying relatively flat and stable, now might be the perfect time if you’ve been thinking about making a transition.
Of course, whether you’re in the market for your dream home or considering selling your property, or both, all of us here at the LoneRock Team at Fathom Realty would love to assist you every step of the way.
Also, we’ve put together a program to find “Hidden Inventory, Off Market Homes” for my clients without all the hassle and competition from other buyers.
This has been and will continue to be our #1 Strategy to get you and your family out of your current home and into your dream home. Let’s see what we can find together!
Just click here to learn all about the “Perfect Home Finder” Program!
To see the strategies we’ve been implementing to sell for the most the market will bear, regardless of the time of year we’re in, Watch our “Pre-Listing Price Accelerator” Guide Here and see How To Maximize Your Home Sale. It will walk you through everything we’ve been doing at the LoneRock Team to get amazing results for our home sellers.
As you can see, It’s going to be an interesting Spring and Summer selling season this year. So, thanks for checking out this Monthly Market Update. We’ll catch you on the next one!